BONUS EPISODE: 5 numbers in 5 minutes | Mission Solar 2040

Catch up on the latest in Europe's battery storage market with this bonus episode of Shine On Policycast! In just 5 minutes, Raffaele Rossi, Head of Market Intelligence at SolarPower Europe, shares five key numbers from our Mission Solar 2040 report, highlighting key figures on solar and energy system flexibility. Perfect for solar enthusiasts, policy makers, and anyone interested in renewable energy updates!

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0:06

So welcome to this bonus episode of Shine On Policycast, where we share five numbers in five minutes to update you about the solar market in Europe. I'm Bethany, and today I'm joined by Raffaele Rossi, our Head of Market Intelligence at SolarPower Europe. So welcome, Raffaele. Hello, Bethany. Thank you. So Solar is on a mission. We're on a mission to power Europe by solar and the whole world, really. And we recently launched a report on how to get to achieve this mission, and it's called Mission Solar 2040. And it talks about some different scenarios about the levels of flexibility and electrification in the power system. So we've got a few different scenarios there, solar as usual, solar plus a bit of flexibility and electrification, and solar with the optimal amount of flexibility and electrification. And you're going to take us through five numbers in this report and give us a bit of a summary of it. I'm going to start the timer very shortly, so I hope you're ready! Let's do it. Okay, so three, two, one, and you're off. Right. I'll start with the first number, which is nine, and actually nine fold. That's the increase that our advanced flexibility scenarios anticipates between today and 2040. So, thanks to an adequate deployment of flexibility solutions such as flexible infrastructure and smart electrification. We anticipate that the solar capacity installed in the EU is going to grow ninefold from 270 gigawatts installed at the end of last year until 2040 would reach 2.4 terawatts, that's 2,400 gigawatts of solar capacity with the adequate deployment of flexibility solutions. How much of the EU's electricity needs would that cover then? That would be roughly 40% of electricity needs in the EU. Solar would become the backbone of the electricity needs from the EU. That's number one. It's nine. What's number two? Number two would be 49%. 49% reflects the decrease in solar curtailment rates in 2040 in the advanced flexibility scenario versus the baseline scenario. Basically, as variable renewables capacity such as wind and solar keep growing and keep being installed, we also need to deploy adequate flexibility solutions that allow for a better integration of these resources in the power system. So, thanks to the deployment of such solutions, we would have a significant decrease of the energy that would be otherwise curtailed. So, energy that cannot be fed into the grid and would be basically wasted. Okay, so you're cutting it in half, basically by being able to keep all those power plants online. So 9, 49. The third one will be 54%, and that's the flip-side of the coin of the curtailment message. 54% is the increase in solar capture prices. Solar capture price is how much you benefit as a solar developer for the value of solar electricity that you sell to end customers. Basically, if we do have enough flexibility solutions, you're able to address the so-called the cannibalisation effect. Cannibalisation effect is when all solar, which is always when all solar produces at the same time, you have abundance of solar electricity. The sunny midday. Indeed, all produces at the same time, you have a lot of solar production. You have an abundance of it. Its value per kilowatt hour decreases, and the price that you get for it also decreases. If you're able to deploy these solutions, then the value of solar energy also increases accordingly, and you have a viable business model for solar developers. So, number 4 then? Number 4 is 160, and that's the billion euros of energy system savings in the EU by 2030 compared to the baseline scenario. What do we win by that? On the one hand, you have more electrification and more flexibility solutions such as grids, connections, you have more battery storage, you have more electric vehicles, heat pumps, electrolysers. So, all of these contribute to smart electrification and flexibility solutions in the power system. And that incurs into some additional investment costs up front. But on the other hand, if you look at the whole energy system perspective, you have massive savings in operational costs. Imagine all that we spend on a yearly basis on gas for gas boilers so for the heat sector, petrol for IEC cars. All of this or a significant amount of this could be saved through smart electrification, which is very very efficient from an economic standpoint. We talked about financial savings, and what about environmental? Right. That's the fifth point. That's 555. That's a million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent of GHG emissions savings by year for the EU energy system by 2040, still compared to our baseline scenario. Here is a similar message compared to the cost, but even stronger if possible. On the one hand, the power system emissions slightly increase because you have more electricity demand from the now electrified sector, the heat sector, the industry, transport. But on the other hand, you save a lot of carbon emissions from switching to electrification in this currently fossil-fuel-intensive sectors. This relates to... You're in your last 40 seconds. My last words. This relates to savings on the fuel for the rise in cars, the gas for the gas boilers. Similarly, that brings to 555 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions savings per year. That is roughly 90% of the total EU power system emissions in 2023. Wow, and that brings us perfectly to five minutes. Thanks so much, Raffaele. So, a quick run through then. More flexibility in the system, so energy storage, demand-side response, all the stuff that makes our system use power when it's abundant and it's cheaper. So, employing flexibility solutions will mean a ninefold increase in the amount of solar we can add to the system. It will also reduce the amount of curtailment that we have by 2040 by almost 50%. And at the same time, we're making sure that the value of solar is still worth the investment, and it's bolstering the capture prices by more than 50%. And then, of course we see savings across the energy system as we move away from fossils. And big boom for the climate because we cut our emissions by over 500 megatons of CO₂. Per year. Per year. Thanks so much Raffaele for your insights. Mission Solar 2040 is available on our website, and I advise everybody to go check it out. If you're interested in flexibility and the value that adds to the system, you can also join in the conversation online by using the hashtag #LetsFlex.